Urban Sprawl
The Halifax Regional Municipality has suffered from a similar problem affecting Canada's other largest urban centres, suburban sprawl. Satellite images clearly show the transformation of forrest surrounding the city of Halifax into developments. 81% of Canada's population now live in urban/suburban areas.
According to the 2014 HRM regional planning document, the population of the HRM is expected to rise by 73,115 people from 2011 to 2031. Currently, the HRM is one of the most sprawling urban areas in all of North America by population density.
Sprawl is NOT sustainable. It doesn't conserve resources, protect the environment or create efficient infrastructure.
Cost
People are now spending more money on transportation than housing. The average car costs $10,000/year. Commuting long distances is becoming increasingly unattractive. As a country, Canada spends $29 billion/year on its sprawling road networks.
It costs more to build in a new area than an existing area. Expanding suburbs requires massive investment in water, sewer, and roads. Police, fire, sanitation, snow removal and transit also cost significantly more. Suburban sprawl isn't only costly for those who choose to live in them, they drain funds from all taxpayers. Sprawl could end up costing the HRM up to $3 Billion in extra spending over the next 18 years.
According to the 2014 HRM regional planning document, the population of the HRM is expected to rise by 73,115 people from 2011 to 2031. Currently, the HRM is one of the most sprawling urban areas in all of North America by population density.
Sprawl is NOT sustainable. It doesn't conserve resources, protect the environment or create efficient infrastructure.
Cost
People are now spending more money on transportation than housing. The average car costs $10,000/year. Commuting long distances is becoming increasingly unattractive. As a country, Canada spends $29 billion/year on its sprawling road networks.
It costs more to build in a new area than an existing area. Expanding suburbs requires massive investment in water, sewer, and roads. Police, fire, sanitation, snow removal and transit also cost significantly more. Suburban sprawl isn't only costly for those who choose to live in them, they drain funds from all taxpayers. Sprawl could end up costing the HRM up to $3 Billion in extra spending over the next 18 years.
Health
In many suburban areas you can’t walk to anything, some don’t even bother installing sidewalks. Living in the suburbs can take up to four years off your life because nothing is in walking distance. According to the David Suzuki Foundation,"researchers have found that people living in sprawling suburbs spend less time walking and weigh up to six pounds more than those living in pedestrian-friendly neighbourhoods." Driving so much can also be dangerous. There are four times as many deaths due to car accidents than homicides in Canada and sprawled areas have up to five times more traffic fatalities than well planed centres.
Environment
Sprawl is horrible for the environment. More sprawling developments leave less and less green space around the HRM.
Urban dwellers, on average, leave 1/3 the carbon footprint of suburban dwellers. Vehicles account for about 50% of all household emissions in North America and suburban dwellers drive 30% more than those who live in urban centres.
In many suburban areas you can’t walk to anything, some don’t even bother installing sidewalks. Living in the suburbs can take up to four years off your life because nothing is in walking distance. According to the David Suzuki Foundation,"researchers have found that people living in sprawling suburbs spend less time walking and weigh up to six pounds more than those living in pedestrian-friendly neighbourhoods." Driving so much can also be dangerous. There are four times as many deaths due to car accidents than homicides in Canada and sprawled areas have up to five times more traffic fatalities than well planed centres.
Environment
Sprawl is horrible for the environment. More sprawling developments leave less and less green space around the HRM.
Urban dwellers, on average, leave 1/3 the carbon footprint of suburban dwellers. Vehicles account for about 50% of all household emissions in North America and suburban dwellers drive 30% more than those who live in urban centres.
Changing Trends
"Main street has come back big time. If the millennial wave has the influence that is expected over the next ten to 15 years, the high street revival is just gathering force."
- Emerging trends in real estate, 2015 report
The millennials are flocking to the city
The millennials (born between 1977 and 1995) have different aspirations than their parents. They no longer desire a house in the suburbs with a big lawn. Instead they want, "dense, diverse urban villages where social interaction is just outside their front doors." In a recent Nielsen report, 62% of millennials surveyed prefer to live in mixed-use urban centres with housing, shopping and office space right outside their doorsteps. Millennials want walkability and are much less likely to rent than buy, walk instead of drive. Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Business Insider, CNBC, Fortune Magazine, CBC, USA Today and The New York Times, to list just a few, have all published articles supporting this emerging trend.
Millennials who pursued a post-secondary education, approaching 80% of Canadians, are coming out of university or college with huge student debt.
The average Nova Scotia grad owes $25,000 and is facing a provincial youth unemployment rate of 18.3%. Taking out another massive loan to buy a house is simply not on the minds of these grads. Even buying a car is sometimes impossible. Urban living isn't only desired by the new generation, its becoming a necessity.
The millennials (born between 1977 and 1995) have different aspirations than their parents. They no longer desire a house in the suburbs with a big lawn. Instead they want, "dense, diverse urban villages where social interaction is just outside their front doors." In a recent Nielsen report, 62% of millennials surveyed prefer to live in mixed-use urban centres with housing, shopping and office space right outside their doorsteps. Millennials want walkability and are much less likely to rent than buy, walk instead of drive. Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Business Insider, CNBC, Fortune Magazine, CBC, USA Today and The New York Times, to list just a few, have all published articles supporting this emerging trend.
Millennials who pursued a post-secondary education, approaching 80% of Canadians, are coming out of university or college with huge student debt.
The average Nova Scotia grad owes $25,000 and is facing a provincial youth unemployment rate of 18.3%. Taking out another massive loan to buy a house is simply not on the minds of these grads. Even buying a car is sometimes impossible. Urban living isn't only desired by the new generation, its becoming a necessity.
"the largest and fastest-growing demographic groups prefer location-efficient neighbourhoods"
-2014 RBC Survey
Baby boomers
In Halifax, the trend is for baby boomers to move away from the suburbs and into condos. They prefer the easy living of an urban condo vs a labour intensive aging suburban home. A June, 2015 CBC The National news report indicated the difficulty baby boomers are having selling homes in Halifax because the new generation isn't buying.
The Washington Post, Realtor Magazine, CBS and the Wall Street Journal have all published articles indicating that baby boomers are becoming attracted to urban cores. It must also be noted that, unlike the trend of Millennials going to cities, there has been noted opposition to the trend of boomers moving back. What is clear, however, is that if they do move, access to health is the #1 concern. Main Street Dartmouth, with 45 health & wellness facilities, is a health care hub.
In Halifax, the trend is for baby boomers to move away from the suburbs and into condos. They prefer the easy living of an urban condo vs a labour intensive aging suburban home. A June, 2015 CBC The National news report indicated the difficulty baby boomers are having selling homes in Halifax because the new generation isn't buying.
The Washington Post, Realtor Magazine, CBS and the Wall Street Journal have all published articles indicating that baby boomers are becoming attracted to urban cores. It must also be noted that, unlike the trend of Millennials going to cities, there has been noted opposition to the trend of boomers moving back. What is clear, however, is that if they do move, access to health is the #1 concern. Main Street Dartmouth, with 45 health & wellness facilities, is a health care hub.
Baby boomers are the wealthiest generation ever but won't be able to keep up their comfortable living styles. Senior Care is too costly. In Atlantic Canada, retirement communities cost $1,600-$2,300/month. Home care ranges from $15-75/hour. The average cost of senior housing in Atlantic Canada is about $2,137/month. The average Canadian Pension Plan pays just $550/month. Old Age Security in Canada is $549.89/month. Medicare costs also rise with age. Even with a tidy sum saved, if one lives 20-30 years after retirement, its only a matter of time before savings dry up. New, more affordable ways to care for seniors must be adopted to face the growing population.
In 2011, 5 million Canadians were 65+. That number will double over the next 25 years and by 2036 there are expected to be 10.4 million seniors in Canada. By 2051, one in four Canadians will be 65+. Seniors make up the fastest-growing age group in all of Canada, a trend that is expected to continue for decades to come. Nova Scotia currently has the highest percentage of seniors (16.5%) of all Canadian provinces. By 2036 Nova Scotia’s 65+ residents will jump from 16.5% of population to 28.6%.
In 2011, 5 million Canadians were 65+. That number will double over the next 25 years and by 2036 there are expected to be 10.4 million seniors in Canada. By 2051, one in four Canadians will be 65+. Seniors make up the fastest-growing age group in all of Canada, a trend that is expected to continue for decades to come. Nova Scotia currently has the highest percentage of seniors (16.5%) of all Canadian provinces. By 2036 Nova Scotia’s 65+ residents will jump from 16.5% of population to 28.6%.
Building for the future?
In 2014, the Royal Bank of Canada released a study on housing preferences. They surveyed over 1,000 residents of Toronto in follow up to a similar survey conducted in 2012. They found similar results both years, that 81% of respondents would willingly give up a larger house and backyard to live somewhere walkable and transit friendly. They also found that young people and old people were more likely to prefer areas with high walkability. The RBC survey concluded that people are becoming increasingly concerned WHERE they live and not WHAT they live in. It also questioned current building practices, we aren't thinking enough about the future.
In the HRM change is already happening. In 2015, 43% of the municipality's construction dollars were spent in the town centre. Three years before that, it was just 17%. From 2006 to 2011 just 16% of new housing in the HRM occurred in peninsular Halifax and Dartmouth. By 2013 that number had nearly doubled, to 27.5%. As the urban centre of Atlantic Canada, Halifax and Dartmouth will see continued growth for the forceable future. That growth needs to be trending towards urban centres like Main Street.
In 2014, the Royal Bank of Canada released a study on housing preferences. They surveyed over 1,000 residents of Toronto in follow up to a similar survey conducted in 2012. They found similar results both years, that 81% of respondents would willingly give up a larger house and backyard to live somewhere walkable and transit friendly. They also found that young people and old people were more likely to prefer areas with high walkability. The RBC survey concluded that people are becoming increasingly concerned WHERE they live and not WHAT they live in. It also questioned current building practices, we aren't thinking enough about the future.
In the HRM change is already happening. In 2015, 43% of the municipality's construction dollars were spent in the town centre. Three years before that, it was just 17%. From 2006 to 2011 just 16% of new housing in the HRM occurred in peninsular Halifax and Dartmouth. By 2013 that number had nearly doubled, to 27.5%. As the urban centre of Atlantic Canada, Halifax and Dartmouth will see continued growth for the forceable future. That growth needs to be trending towards urban centres like Main Street.
"A new, more dynamic nova scotia economy needs growing urban centres that draw in people and capital and push development out to their surrounding regions."
-Ivany Report